An international perspective for the Social Budget of Germany

Social policy worldwide is under review, as globalisation, deregulation, ageing, migration, etc. challenge and destabilise its structures. Demographics, labour markets and production processes are changing fast and Europe has become a region of economic and social transition, the more so since the 2004 accession of new member states to the EU. Social policy in this environment is being seriously challenged by the promotion and pull of market efficiencies on the one hand and social protection and equality on the other. As a tool in its assistance to governments and social security schemes, SECSOC has over the past several years developed a generic set of interlinked computer models (the social budget model) designed to map, simulate and forecast the development of national social expenditure and revenue within specific demographic, economic and labour market parameters. Activities: - the ILO social budget model family will be redesigned/transformed into a tool applicable to the German social system; it will be used to model long-term simulations of Germany’s social budget under both status quo and alternative social policy options, with special consideration given to options formulated by the DGB (German Trades Union) whose request for advice and information was at the origin of the project. Particular attention will be devoted to the constitutional imbalance between the economic and social policies of Europe. - the study will primarily focus on Germany; but will build on information from a currently on-going ILO project evaluating pension systems and their future long-term development in a number of Eastern European countries. Simulation results will be analysed in the broader context of the development of social protection in the EU and of social policy trends. Research objectives: - The adapted social budget model will enable the projection of Germany’s social budget on the basis of alternative policy designs, facilitating an informed analysis of the different policy options formulated. - The long-term modeling simulations of Germany’s social protection system will enable comparisons with selected Eastern European countries. - Taking advantage of ILO’s international experience in social protection, the study will aim to explore the economic and social implications of social policy trends in Europe. It should significantly contribute to the debate on the future of the welfare state model in both Germany and Europe.

Project symbol

GFR/05/01/HBF

Admin unit

SEC/SOC

Start date

01/10/2006

End date

30/09/2008

Total allocation

47566

Total expenditure

Status

Closed

47566

Development Partners

Hans-Böckler-Stiftung

Country/Countries

Germany

Outcomes

Social Dialogue and Industrial Relations